By Ward Richmond
As I sit here at the home office on the morning following the Winter solstice, I can admit I may have subconsciously used this whole COVID debacle as an excuse to procrastinate writing this Q3 2020 market update blog until the last possible minute. Such is life in 2020.
In general, COVID-19 seems to still have its foot on the gas and it is scary out there, but there is thankfully a vaccine on the way to save the day!
I tested positive for COVID back in October, so I am going to try to take advantage of this extremely low cost travel and heightened immunity while I still can! My COVID experience was, thankfully, pretty mild but it still put me in bed for about a week. Meanwhile, I think it is safe to say that the Big Box industrial real estate market is certifiably COVID proof.
The DFW Industrial Market stayed strong overall in Q3 2020 putting up some big numbers and continuing to close some huge deals. Developers have delivered almost 25 Mil SF of space as of Q3 and have another 28 Mil SF under construction. The 28 Mil under construction is a steep decline from the 35 Mil SF +/- we have seen in recent quarters so it is obvious the global economic crisis has caused many developers to be a little more conservative than they were being a year ago. Regardless, DFW still leads the US in product delivered and under construction.
The Big Box Market (200K SF + facilities) has hit huge net absorption numbers with almost 17 Mil SF of deals getting done YTD, with 4 Mil SF of Deals getting done in Q3.
The NON Big-Box warehouse market continued to see NEGATIVE absorption with (500,000) in Q3. These are important metrics to understand which should not be overlooked with your rose-colored supply chain real estate glasses. The true winners of this pandemic are the large modern, bulk industrial facilities being built to support eCommerce distribution – not necessarily industrial real estate as a whole.
The fact that the Big Box market is now performing differently when compared to the rest of the industrial market makes me think that the Big Box market is essentially becoming its very own asset class in this new eComm exploding, COVID world that we are living in.
We cannot help but be extremely grateful this holiday season, when the world gets flipped upside down with vast uncertainty that we are fortunate enough to have such incredible customers who we consider to be our great friends by our side as we navigate the COVID jungle together to generate massive value for occupiers of supply chain real estate.
To get further inside my supply chain brain,
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AVG Qoated Rent:$4.64
200,000-499,999 SF: 416/45
500,000-749,999 Sf: 187/11
750,000+ SF: 78/6
Currently, at 16.9 million square feet, the total should easily surpass 20 million square feet for the year with the expectations of several large tenants moving later this year. This is no slow down anticipated in this sector as more national distributors look to take advantage of the abundance and low cost of labor throughout the metroplex
Vacancy levels are holding steady at 10.2%, while absorption in heading for a new all-time high annual.
Construction, while strong with 36 buildings comprising 18.1 million square feet, is at the lowest levels seen since the fourth quarter of 2017. With much of these buildings being built on a speculative basis, tenants looking for space have abundant options with 107 options available in the 100,000 to 500,000 square feet range and 25 options with over 500,000 square feet available.
Rental rates shot up to $4.64 per square foot NNN
Ward Richmond has over twelve years of experience specializing in industrial real estate, and has negotiated over 500 transactions while working in over 100 cities across the USA, Canada, and Mexico. Several publications have featured Ward for his expertise in this field including the Wall Street Journal, Dallas Morning News, and Dallas Business Journal. He also serves on Colliers International Industrial Advisory Board, and is a member of the Logistics & Transportation Solutions Group.
Client Services Specialist
The Gladiator Group is supported by Colliers International Research Team
ON THE ROAD AGAIN
Jan 22-24, 2020:BGSA Supply Chain Conference, Palm Beach, FL
Feb 21-23, 2020: Grant Cardone 10X Growth Conference, Las Vegas, NV
Mar 15-17, 2020: IWLA Convention & Expo, San Diego, CA