By Ward Richmond
As we cruise into another hot Texas summer, I finally have had a moment to take a hard look at the Q1 2018 industrial numbers and I must say they look fairly weak compared to how we finished up 2017.
According to our high caliber research team at Colliers International, the DFW industrial market is holding steady at a 6% overall industrial vacancy. As a friendly reminder, 10% used to be the norm when I started in the business back in 2006.
While we only delivered about 3 Million SF in new product last quarter, we have another 24 Milly currently under construction which puts us on track to keep up with the great 28 million SF that we delivered in 2017.
The bad news is that we only had a little over 2 Mil SF in net absorption. At this rate, Landlords have to be getting a little bit nervous if they want to keep up with the 24 Millorama SF in net absorption we had in 2017.
Don’t worry though, guys and gals. I know what’s really happening out there and frankly, these absorption numbers don’t mean jack. My team alone is working on well over 5 Mil SF of assignments in DFW so all of you Landlords better stay focused, keep your eye on the ball and get ready to get aggressive and win these deals so you’re not left out in the cold with the dogs.
The beauty of DFW’s industrial landscape is that construction and absorption have been extremely well aligned during the longest and strongest bull market in commercial real estate history. This miracle allows landlords to stay fat and happy but also provides tenants with some pretty decent options and competitive economics. Everybody wins! We just wrapped up a few projects in LA and trust me, being a Tenant in Dallas is a cake walk compared to begging and fighting for subpar space in SoCal!
I predict that DFW will see some monster deals start slamming down this summer and when I report back after summer break, I’m hopeful that leasing will be clicking back on track to bust through the 20 Mil mark by Christmas.
Dallas, TX forever, y’all. Let’s do this!
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AVG Qoated Rate:$3.84 SF
200,000-499,999 SF: 351/44
500,000-749,999 SF: 91/15
750,000+ SF: 58/8
Big-Box deliveries were significantly lower this quarter with only four properties totaling 2 million square feet delivered. The construction pipeline, while lower than mid-2017 is still optimistic with 20 million square feet under construction, of which 70% is spec.
Vacancy for Big-Box product rose 0.1%, with vacant space increasing by 354,115 square feet. An increase in sublease space on the market caused the overall rise in vacancy, as direct vacancy was down 0.6% from the previous quarter, while sublease space increased half a percent.
Net absorption was significantly slower in Q1 2018 than activity in previous years. Total absorption was 1.6 million square feet. This was significantly affected by negative absorption from Restoration Hardware subleasing 858,000 square feet at 1303 W Pioneer Pky and 310,000 square feet of vacated sublet space in E DFW Airport.
Average asking rates for Big-Box product in Q1 2018 were $3.84 NNN, with a 1.3% increase quarter-over-quarter. Since rates dipped in the latter half of 2017, rates were only up half a percentage point year-over-year.
Ward Richmond has over twelve years of experience specializing in industrial real estate, and has negotiated over 500 transactions while working in over 100 cities across the USA, Canada, and Mexico. Several publications have featured Ward for his expertise in this field including the Wall Street Journal, Dallas Morning News, and Dallas Business Journal. He also serves on Colliers International Industrial Advisory Board, and is a member of the Logistics & Transportation Solutions Group.
The Richmond team also includes Liam Logan, Cole Hooper, Brad Balke, Zack Rutland, Renee Castillo, and Rachel Hendrix. They assist with market analysis, financial analysis, strategic real estate and facilities planning, site selection, and acquisition and disposition services.
Executive Vice President
ON THE ROAD AGAIN
Aug 20-22, 2018: Retail Delivery Connect, Ft. Lauderdale, FL
October 4-5, 2018: :Colliers National Industrial Conference, Chicago, IL
Client Services Coordinator
The Richmond team is supported by Colliers International Research Team
This is a new map that we created with our superb Colliers DFW marketing team in an e§ort to show DFW’s 8 key industrial submarkets. This map gives you a snapshot of the DFW metro highlighting landmarks, airports, intermodals, distribution hubs and manufacturing facilities for notable tenants and of course the Best BBQ joint each submarket has to o§er. We will keep evolving this map and if you would like to discuss the DFW marketplace, please contact our team to dig in further.
CONTACT WARD RICHMOND AT: