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DFW Market Update – Q3 2018

November 20, 2018
Market Reports
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DFW Market Update – Q3 2018

By Ward Richmond

CRUISE CONTROL

As DFW cruises through another Peak Season, Amazon is kicking off its Black Friday sales a week before Thanksgiving. I’m not surprised.

Consumerism is at an all-time high and so is the demand for Big Box Distribution Centers. This is especially true in my backyard and rapidly growing hometown of Dallas, TX! And, let’s not forget our cowboy cousin, Fort Worth!

In Q3 2018, the DFW Industrial Real Estate Market absorbed 3.5 Mil SF of new deals which pushes YTD absorption numbers past 13 Mil. We still have about 7 Mil SF to go if we want to hit 20 – which is what the large and in-charge landlords are hoping will happen.

Despite record strong leasing activity, our vacancy rates popped back up above 6% this quarter due to a massive amount of new product being delivered. Developers slammed down another 10 Mil SF, further expanding our Texas tilt wall jungle pushing New Supply YTD up to almost 17 Mil SF.

It should be no surprise that these aggressive developers are still pushing the eComm envelope with another 24 Mil SF currently under construction!

During this season of Thanksgiving, industrial real estate professionals everywhere should be very thankful to be living in the Golden Age of Ecommerce and working through the longest and strongest bull market in industrial real estate history!

I mean, I keep hearing people say that Industrial Real Estate is “Sexy”! They just might have a point.

To get further inside my supply chain brain,
please check out my website and blog:
www.SupplyChainRealEstate.com

Q3 2018 TOP DFW DEALS

  • Home Depot leased 2.3 Mil SF from NorthPoint Development at Dallas Global Industrial Center in Dallas.
  • Amazon leased a 3 Story/ 80’ Clear/ 855,000 SF beast of a building from Hillwood at Commerce 30 just south of I-30 along Chalk Hill Road in the Cockrell Hill area of west Dallas.
  • McLane Company lease 670,300 SF from Highridge Provender at Provender Logistics Center in Fort Worth.
  • Elements International leased 487,200 SF from IDI Logistics at Skyline Trade Center in Mesquite.
  • Alan Ritchey leased 450,340 SF from Jackson Shaw/Clarion at Parc GSW in Irving.

Q3 2018 TOP TEAM RICHMOND PROJECTS

  • Chase Industries (with Bill Buntyn/ Colliers Nashville) – Irving, TX—172,173 SF—New Lease
  • DB Schenker – DFW Airport, TX—130,270 SF—Renewal
  • YRC Worldwide – Carrollton, TX—75,793 SF—New lease
  • DB Schenker – Cd. Juárez, Mexico—72,205 SF—New Lease
  • FedEx Freight – Virginia Beach, VA—22,000 SF—Disposition

AVG Qoated Rate:

$3.81 SF
CURRENT Big Box by size:

#BLDGS/VACANCIES

200,000-499,999 SF: 363/72

500,000-749,999 Sf: 94/25

750,000+ SF: 64/10

Key Takeaways

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The vacancy rate experienced an increase of over 1.4%, as much of the product that delivered this quarter was speculative. With overall leasing activity down somewhat this year, expect vacancy to uptick more this year as close to 70% of product currently under construction does not have a tenant signed.

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In the third quarter there were 12 Big-Box deliveries bringing the year to date total to 25 buildings with a combined square footage of over 13 million square feet. There are still 35 Big-Box buildings under construction with 16 million square feet expected to be delivered to the market over the next 18 months..

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Rental rates for Big-Box inventory remained at at $3.81, making this the eighth straight quarter where rates hovered in the low $3.80’s..

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Absorption dropped this quarter to 1.8 million square feet. While signicantly down from last quarters amount of 6.5 million, the metroplex is still on pace to have a very strong absorption total of 14-15 million for the year.

MEET THE TEAM MEMBERS

Ward Richmond has over eleven years of experience specializing in industrial real estate, and has negotiated over 500 transactions while working in over 100 cities across the USA, Canada, and Mexico. Several publications have featured Ward for his expertise in this field including the Wall Street Journal, Dallas Morning News, and Dallas Business Journal. He also serves on Colliers International Industrial Advisory Board, and is a member of the Logistics & Transportation Solutions Group.

The Richmond team also includes Liam Logan, Cole Hooper, Brad Balke, Zack Rutland, and Kristina “K-Rod” Rodriguez. This high caliber team delivers next level marketing activities, market analysis, financial analysis, strategic real estate and facilities planning, site selection, and acquisition and disposition services.

WARD RICHMOND, SIOR

Executive Vice President

LIAM LOGAN

Senior Associate

COLE HOOPER

Associate

BRAD BALKE

Associate

ZACK RUTLAND

Associate

KRISTINA RODRIGUEZ

Client Services Specialist

MIKE OTILLIO

Research Director

The Richmond team is supported by Colliers International Research Team

SUBMARKET MAP

This is a new map that we created with our superb Colliers DFW marketing team in an effort to show DFW’s 8 key industrial submarkets. This map gives you a snapshot of the DFW metro highlighting landmarks, airports, intermodals, distribution hubs and manufacturing facilities for notable tenants and of course the Best BBQ joint each submarket has to oer. We will keep evolving this map and if you would like to discuss the DFW marketplace, please contact our team to dig in further.

CONTACT WARD RICHMOND AT:

Office 214.217.1201
Mobile 214.336.5757
Email [email protected]