By Ward Richmond
The Industrial real estate market is back on fire again after a momentary pause to celebrate not having to wear masks on airplanes anymore.
Tenant demand in DFW is booming while the supply pipeline has decreased dramatically (although still a robust 58 Mil SF Under Construction) due to nervous developers who have slowed their roll as they try to wrap their arms around material and labor shortages, rising interest rates and the choppy debt markets.
Meanwhile, cities across America are getting fed up with Industrial development and attempting to shun it in many cases, while begging for “office users” and “high paying jobs” to come in its place. Which, Goldman Sachs is supposedly in the process of delivering to DFW with plans (or so I’ve heard) to sign a 1 Mil SF lease near downtown Dallas and relocate multiple millionaire staffers from NYC down to the Promised Land of Texas.
News outlets everywhere (hilariously) spoke of the impending doom of Amazon’s warehouse footprint in late Spring of 2022 but as far as I (and my credit card statement) can tell, Amazon is doing just fine. I expect they will continue to grow their always-innovative distribution footprint at a steady pace as they continue to be at the forefront of direct-to-consumer distribution.
Power player retailers like Walmart and Target took advantage of the momentary lull and bad press by signing two of the largest DFW leases in Q2 2022.
DFW industrial real estate supply on the horizon has decreased drastically from 72 Mil SF under construction in Q1 to 58 Mil SF in Q2. Developers are evidently taking a little pause for the cause. Loans are just not as easy to get as they were 90 days ago. Basis points are jumping 200 points in some cases. I get it.
As far as I can tell, tenant demand hasn’t been impacted by commercial real estate loans and “the capital markets” in the same manner and the pedal is firmly back on the metal with DFW hitting 8 Mil SF in absorption as we approach midyear after a lackluster 3 Mil SF in Q1.
Rents are at an all-time high boasting a 25% increase versus rents from a year ago. I expect this trend will continue.
Cap rates have also increased. The new catch phrase: “Amazon deals used to trade at 3.5 and now they’re trading at a 4.5” can be overheard at any gathering of industrial real estate investors around the world.
At the end of the day, DFW is running out of good land sites. eCommerce is still in its infancy, supply chains are getting continually beefed up and population growth continues to boom. Among other things.
So, buckle up, hold on for dear life, and if you need to lock down space, give us a call.
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Landlords continue to push rental rates upwards.
Construction activity remains in uncharted territory, with over 58 million square feet of space under development.
The vacancy rate of 5.6% for all industrial product types was down 1.4% from a year ago. Warehouse space specifically was down 1.3% year over year at 5.8%.
Ward Richmond has over fifteen years of experience specializing in industrial real estate, and has negotiated over 500 transactions while working in over 100 cities across the USA, Canada, and Mexico. Several publications have featured Ward for his expertise in this field including the Wall Street Journal, Dallas Morning News, and Dallas Business Journal. He also serves on Colliers International Industrial Advisory Board, and is a member of the Logistics & Transportation Solutions Group.
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ON THE ROAD AGAIN
October 4-6, 2022: Colliers Industrial Conference, Austin, TX
October 12-13, 2022: Armstrong 3PL Value Creation Summit, Chicago, IL
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The Supply Chain Syndicate is supported by Colliers International Research Team