The Heat Is On

September 6, 2023
Market Reports


The Heat Is On

By Ward Richmond

The Heat is on as the DFW Industrial Market approaches concerning levels of being overbuilt while simultaneously landing outrageous amounts of big deals! The DFW market is coming in hot with 1.024 Billion SF of total Industrial Inventory. Look out Chicago, NY, LA! We comin’!

Despite relatively strong market activity, there are a lot of landlords out there with vacant buildings as 16.3 Mil SF of new industrial supply was delivered in Q2 putting us at 36 Mil SF of new supply delivered YTD. “Holy Shitake Mushrooms”, as my daughter would say. That’s a lot of space, and we have another 60 Mil SF under construction as of Q2 23.

Thankfully, we have had a very healthy number deals get signed in Q2 – with close to 15 over 500K SF, including three 1 Mil SF + deals. Details below on the Top 5! We just need about 10-15 more big bombers to land so we can push that 7.2% Vacancy Rate (as of Q2 23) back down in the 5% range like it was in 2022.

Net Absorption YTD is closing in on 15 Mil SF which is very healthy, and I expect to see a big surge in Q3 and Q4 as more tenants relocate and expand within DFW to take advantage of the world class supply chain infrastructure, a healthy labor market, business-friendly government, and rapidly growing population.

2023 is going to be a year of a little bit of softness (compared to the last couple of years), but I’m not too concerned. This softness is primarily due to astronomical amount of new product being built. Nevertheless, most landlords are sticking to their guns, and rents are still escalating to record highs (up to $7.62 psf versus $6.19 psf in Q4 22).

I expect 2024 should see a shift back to record-low vacancy, and we will see rents continue to grow. So if YOU are an industrial tenant, and your company needs help identifying soft spots in the DFW industrial market right now, hit me up. They do exist. And we know where to find them. Namaste.

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please check out my website and blog:

Q2 2023 Top Richmond Projects

  • CEVA – Ramos Arizpe – MX – 3186k SF – Lease
  • DB Schenker – Juarez- MX – 250k SF – Lease
  • Patriot Transport Inc. – Dallas-Fort Worth – TX – 36k SF – Sublease
  • 901 Distribution – Available for Sale or Lease – Download Flyer

Q2 2023 Top DFW Deals

  • Pepsi – South Dallas – 1.3M SF Lease
  • Southwire – South Dallas – 1M SF Lease
  • Canadian Solar – Mesquite – 753K SF Lease
  • Ariat – Northeast Dallas – 609K SF Lease

Key Takeaways


For the second consecutive quarter, the deliveries have surpassed 15 million square feet, this time tallying up to 16.3 million. Since the beginning of 2021 the market has delivered over 100 million square feet of new space.


Overall vacancy rates continue to be driven up by the delivery of many speculative warehouse projects. In the Big Box segment, there was an increase from 8.7% the past quarter to 10.5% this quarter.


Construction activity continued during 2nd quarter with an additional 10 million square of space kicking off, bringing the total active construction projects to over 61 million square feet.


Rental rates increased again for the 10th straight quarter


Ward Richmond has over fifteen years of experience specializing in industrial real estate, and has negotiated over 500 transactions while working in over 100 cities across the USA, Canada, and Mexico. Several publications have featured Ward for his expertise in this field including the Wall Street Journal, Dallas Morning News, and Dallas Business Journal. He also serves on Colliers International Industrial Advisory Board, and is a member of the Logistics & Transportation Solutions Group.


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The Supply Chain Syndicate is supported by Colliers International Research Team



September 28-29, 2023: Colliers National Industrial Conference, Scottsdale, AZ

October 12-13, 2023: Armstrong 3PL, Chicago, IL