The North Texas Tilt Wall Massacre

By Ward Richmond

Welcome to 2020 y’all. If you are in the North Texas Industrial Real Estate Market, chances are, you are killin’ it.

DFW brought it home in Q4 2019 and crushed it with killer numbers for the year – leading the USA in all categories, nonetheless – including 24 Mil in Net Absorption, 29 Mil SF in New Supply and 30 Mil SF still Under Construction as our booming industrial market rapidly approaches hitting the 900 Mil SF mark with 1 Bil SF insight by the end of the decade.

That is a lot of deals and I’m a little confused as to why I am not currently driving a Lambo.

While I am extremely thankful to have won another DCEO Power Broker Award this year, I do feel like the criteria to win this award does not require too much actual power. You will know when I am truly a “Power Broker” because I will move to Maui and stop writing DFW Market Update blogs!

Despite the ongoing trade disputes with China and quite possibly, the most highly anticipated presidential election in the history of the USA on the horizon, DFW set the industrial real estate market on fire once again clearly positioning our fair Metro as a global force to be reckoned with in the world of Supply Chain & Logistics.

It makes me happy and proud to see our surgical industrial development community continue to push the envelope while still keeping supply and demand somewhat aligned. We expect to see more consistent growth in DFW as we begin this new decade.

As many of you know, our team within Colliers, infamously known to ourselves as the Supply Chain Syndicate, has the fortune to represent some of the most powerful manufacturers and distributors on the face of the planet.

We are filled with gratitude to have worked on projects in over 50 cities last year from representing FedEx in Dartmouth, Nova Scotia to generating massive value for DB Schenker in Sao Paulo, Brazil.

I’m not bragging. I’m just letting you know some hard core facts in order to set the stage for my prediction related to DFW Industrial Real Estate in this new decade:

DFW Rents are not ever going to go back to what they were. The days of $3.00 NNN buildings is long gone.

The rapper Fat Joe wrote a song called “All The Way Up” in 2016 and I think he is talking about what is going to happen to DFW warehouse rates in the 2020’s.

We are still a significant bargain when compared to other global distribution hubs but this will not last long. The prime land sites are basically all under developer control and will soon be home to several tons of concrete, racks and pallets.

I think by the end of the decade, the current quoted rent of $3.91 PSF for Big Box product is going to sound about as crazy as the fact that they used to charge $3.91 for a pack of Marlboros back when I was in high school.

If you are in DFW and you are in the logistics/ manufacturing/ supply chain sector, I suggest you aggressively expand and acquire and lock down a long term position and take advantage of this bargain pricing while it is still here.

If you need help getting this done, just give me a call. I might know a guy.

To get further inside my supply chain brain,
please check out my website and blog:
www.SupplyChainRealEstate.com

Q1 2019 TOP TEAM RICHMOND PROJECTS

ACE Hardware – Wilmer, TX – 900,000 SF Lease
FNA – Mesquite – TX – 400,000 SF Lease
DB Schenker – Globally, – 339,444 SF Lease
TForce Final Mile – Nationally, – 301,173 SF Lease
Keller Logistics – Puyallup, WA – 122,500 SF Lease

Q1 2019 TOP DFW DEALS

El Pedregal S.A Food & Beverage – DFW Airport, TX – 1.54M SF Lease from Bandera.
Smucker’s – Wilmer, TX – 1M SF Lease from Logistics Property Company
Georgia Pacific – South Dallas – 1M SF Lease from USAA Real Estate
Zume – South Dallas – 1M SF Lease from Hines
LG Electronics – Roanoke, TX – 1.2M SF Lease from Hillwood

AVG Qoated Rate:

$3.91 SF

CURRENT Big Box by size:

#BLDGS/VACANCIES

200,000-499,999 SF: 392/74

500,000-749,999 Sf: 104/18

750,000+ SF: 72/13

Key Takeaways

A strong 4th quarter absorption of 6.2 million square feet helped to push the annual total of 19,016,417 into record territory for the DFW Metroplex. This marks the first time ever that the.

The Vacancy high slightly dipped from last year’s rate of 11% down to 10.6% as of the 4th quarter.

Rental rates, continues to rise in the product type, with landlords pushing rates even more into record territory at $3.91 NNN. Rental rates have increased over 13% in the past five years.

Deliveries and new construction kept pace with absorption, both coming in at over 19.9 million square feet. There are currently 39 Big-Box buildings under construction while 34 delivered throughout the year.

MEET THE TEAM MEMBERS

Ward Richmond has over twelve years of experience specializing in industrial real estate, and has negotiated over 500 transactions while working in over 100 cities across the USA, Canada, and Mexico. Several publications have featured Ward for his expertise in this field including the Wall Street Journal, Dallas Morning News, and Dallas Business Journal. He also serves on Colliers International Industrial Advisory Board, and is a member of the Logistics & Transportation Solutions Group.